JD Vance: Appearance, Feb 17, 2026
Polymarket What will JD Vance say in Manhattan on February 17?
Markets
12 words · 0 settled yes- Polymarket: named speaker only Polymarket
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ass / Crazy | No | 54%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Midterm | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Commander | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Gender | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Illegal | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Right Now | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Soros | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Voter ID / VoterID | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran / Ukraine | No | 41%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Big Beautiful Bill | No | 40%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 25%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 16%n=13 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 21, 2026 04:22 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=p%3Awhat-will-jd-vance-say-in-manhattan-on-february-17 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP