Will Donald Trump say “Kevin / Warsh”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Kevin / Warsh” at 5 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 30, 2026 (62%), most recently on Aug 11, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 54% (n=8, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 5/8Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes yes yes yes no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Kevin / Warsh
- Probability
- 54% · n=8
- Settled
- 5/8 (62%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…wants to look like that. He's like the Marbor man. Senators, state senators Lynn Evans and Kevin Allens. Thank you very much for being here.
Every settled listing
newest first · 8 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Kevin / Warsh |  Polymarket | Yes | 3 |
| May 31, 2026 | Kevin / Warsh | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| May 20, 2026 | Kevin / Warsh | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Apr 21, 2026 | Kevin / Warsh |  Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Feb 11, 2026 | Kevin / Warsh | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Feb 10, 2026 | Kevin / Warsh | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Feb 5, 2026 | Kevin / Warsh | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jan 30, 2026 | Kevin / Warsh | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Kevin / Warsh”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Kevin / Warsh” at 5 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 30, 2026 (62%), most recently on Aug 11, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Kevin / Warsh” next time?
- 54%, from settlement history (n=8). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Kevin / Warsh’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/kevin-or-warsh (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=kevin%20%2F%20warsh · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP