Will Donald Trump say “National Security”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “National Security” at 6 of 24 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 13, 2025 (25%), most recently on Jul 24, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 37% (n=24, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 4 keynotes we have transcripts for (Jun 26, 2026 – Jul 15, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1. 1 later keynote without a transcript yet (Oct 8, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 3/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no no yes no no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 5 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
National Security
- Probability
- 37% · n=24
- Settled
- 6/24 (25%)
- Last 4 keynotes
- said in 1 of 4
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…spend it before they get it. In August, I signed a historic national security memorandum unleashing the incredible talent, tools and resources of our private…
Every settled listing
newest first · 29 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 8, 2026 | National Security |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Oct 6, 2026 | National Security |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 6, 2026 | National Security | Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 21, 2026 | National Security | Kalshi | No | – |
| Sep 8, 2026 | National Security | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Sep 8, 2026 | National Security | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | National Security | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | National Security | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | National Security | Polymarket | Yes | 6 |
| Jul 24, 2026 | National Security | Kalshi | Yes | 6 |
| Jul 23, 2026 | National Security | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jul 23, 2026 | National Security | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| Jun 22, 2026 | National Security | Kalshi | No | 0 |
| May 21, 2026 | National Security | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| May 20, 2026 | National Security | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Mar 17, 2026 | National Security | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 16, 2026 | National Security | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 13, 2026 | National Security | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 11, 2026 | National Security | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 8, 2026 | National Security | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Mar 4, 2026 | National Security | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 22, 2026 | National Security | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Feb 14, 2026 | National Security | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 12, 2026 | National Security | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jan 21, 2026 | National Security | Kalshi | Yes | 3 |
| Jan 13, 2026 | National Security | Polymarket | No | – |
| Jun 15, 2025 | National security | Kalshi | No | – |
| May 24, 2025 | National Security | Kalshi | No | – |
| Mar 13, 2025 | National Security | Kalshi | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “National Security”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “National Security” at 6 of 24 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Mar 13, 2025 (25%), most recently on Jul 24, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “National Security” next time?
- 37%, from settlement history (n=24). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘National Security’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/national-security (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=national%20security · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP