Will Donald Trump say “Drug / Fentanyl”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Drug / Fentanyl” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on May 20, 2026.
Of the last 4 keynotes we have transcripts for (Jun 26, 2026 – Jul 15, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2. 1 later keynote without a transcript yet (Oct 8, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Drug / Fentanyl
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 4 keynotes
- said in 2 of 4
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…I got most favored nation agreements to reduce the cost of prescription drugs from the highest drug price in the history of our country to…
…to evade capture. He's explaining to them how to evade capture, murderers, drug dealers, how to evade capture. This is not working for Iowa. He…
…all over the world prisons. They emptied out their prisons. They were drug dealers. They were murderers. 11,888 murders. And I'll tell you what, it's…
As you know, we tariffed them due to the fentanyl, and what they have is fentanyl is used for many purposes. But when it's used…
…much of this region to be dominated by vicious gangs and bloodthirsty drug cartels, destabilized by uncontrolled migration and infiltrated by hostile foreign adversaries, foreign…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 20, 2026 | Drug / Fentanyl |  Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Drug / Fentanyl”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Drug / Fentanyl” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on May 20, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Drug / Fentanyl” next time?
- 55%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Drug / Fentanyl’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/drug-or-fentanyl (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=drug%20%2F%20fentanyl · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP