Will Donald Trump say “Texas”?
As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Texas” at 6 of 10 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 21, 2025 (60%), most recently on May 20, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 57% (n=10, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 4 keynotes we have transcripts for (Jun 26, 2026 – Jul 15, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3. 1 later keynote without a transcript yet (Oct 8, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 6/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes no no yes yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 5 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Texas
- Probability
- 57% · n=10
- Settled
- 6/10 (60%)
- Last 4 keynotes
- said in 3 of 4
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…unbelievable. Unbelievable." And they didn't mention my 29,000. I had it in Texas where you had the previous opponent, the previous Democrat and we had…
like 32 states. Florida, Texas. Uh we're going to Mississippi records. All records, you know, all records. So don't get too cocky. You know, when…
…And we have them both. Isn't that nice? But it's flowing into Texas, Louisiana, all parts of our country. Millions and millions of barrels of…
Every settled listing
newest first · 11 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 20, 2026 | Texas |  Polymarket | Yes | – |
| May 20, 2026 | Texas |  Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Texas | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Mar 22, 2026 | Texas | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Feb 27, 2026 | Texas | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Texas | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Dec 15, 2025 | Texas | Polymarket | No | – |
| Aug 15, 2025 | Texas | Kalshi | No | – |
| Feb 22, 2025 | Texas | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Feb 18, 2025 | Texas | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 21, 2025 | Texas | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Texas”?
- As of Oct 23, 2026, Donald Trump said “Texas” at 6 of 10 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jan 21, 2025 (60%), most recently on May 20, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Texas” next time?
- 57%, from settlement history (n=10). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Texas’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/texa (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=texa · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP