# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · keynote 2026-05-20 · 53 words · K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-26MAY20C · P p:what-will-trump-say-during-coast-guard-keynote · as_of 2026-10-24T10:13:24Z
# scope K named; P named · n/y settled before 2026-05-20 · tn/th last 1 transcripts of any kind 2026-01-20 (under 2 keynote transcripts) · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTION-26MAY20C ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of keynote address at Coast Guard Academy Commencement , then the market resolves to Yes.
# rules P p:what-will-trump-say-during-coast-guard-keynote (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his speech at the Coast Guard Academy scheduled for May 20, 2026.
# rows 1-35 of 53 by p · more: offset=35 (limit=0 lists all)
w	key	thr	v	n	y	rate	l10	tn	th	p	p_src	res
Trillion	trillion	1	K	96	64	0.67	YYYYYYnnnn	1	1	0.71	hist	yes
Smart / Genius	genius|smart	1	P	0	0			1	1	0.69	hist	yes
Democrat	democrat	1	K	141	93	0.66	YnnYnnnYnn	1	1	0.67	hist	no
Nuclear	nuclear	1	P	147	96	0.65	nYnnYYYYYn	1	1	0.66	hist	yes
Venezuela	venezuela	1	KP	30	21	0.7	YYYYYYYnYY	1	1	0.63	hist	yes
250	250	1	K	22	15	0.68	YYnYYnYYnY	1	1	0.63	hist	no
Sleepy Joe	sleepy joe	1	K	80	60	0.75	YYYnYnYYnY	1	1	0.61	hist	no
Hottest	hottest	1	K	231	122	0.53	nnYnnnnYnY	1	1	0.61	hist	yes
First Term	first term	1	K	7	5	0.71	nYnYYYY	1	1	0.6	hist	yes
Border	border	1	K	108	66	0.61	YYYnYnnnYY	1	1	0.6	hist	yes
Gulf of America	gulf of america	1	K	21	13	0.62	nYYYYYYnnY	1	1	0.59	hist	yes
Stock Market	stock market	1	KP	79	43	0.54	YnnnYnYYnY	1	1	0.59	hist	no
Texas	texa	1	KP	9	5	0.56	nnYnnYYYY	1	1	0.58	hist	yes
Fake News	fake new	1	K	103	57	0.55	nYYYYnnYnY	1	1	0.58	hist	yes
Russia / Russian	russia|russian	1	K	4	4	1	YYYY	1	1	0.57	hist	yes
Election	election	1	K	90	54	0.6	nYnnYYYnnY	1	1	0.57	hist	yes
Space Force	space force	1	KP	16	8	0.5	YYYYnnnnYY	1	0	0.57	hist	yes
Iran / Iranian	iran|iranian	1	K	13	8	0.62	YYnnYYYYnY	1	1	0.56	hist	yes
Best military	best military	1	P	0	0			1	0	0.55	hist	no
ISIS	isis	1	P	6	4	0.67	nYYYnY	1	1	0.54	hist	no
China	china	1	P	156	98	0.63	YnYYYYnnYY	1	1	0.54	hist	yes
Kevin / Warsh	kevin|warsh	1	P	5	3	0.6	nnYYY	1	0	0.54	hist	yes
Medal	medal	1	P	1	1	1	Y	1	0	0.53	hist	no
Recruit / Recruiting / Recruitment	recruit|recruiting|recruitment	1	K	1	1	1	Y	1	0	0.53	hist	yes
Eight War	eight war	1	K	74	41	0.55	YYnnYnYnYn	1	1	0.5	hist	no
Puerto Rico	puerto rico	1	K	1	0	0	n	1	0	0.5	hist	no
Maduro	maduro	1	P	58	25	0.43	YYnYYYnYYn	1	1	0.49	hist	yes
God 5+ times	god#5	5	P	8	0	0	nnnnnnnn	1	0	0.48	hist	yes
Hell	hell	1	P	33	14	0.42	nnnnYYnYnY	1	1	0.47	hist	yes
Rebuilt / Rebuild	rebuild|rebuilt	1	P	1	0	0	n	1	1	0.46	hist	no
Afghanistan	afghanistan	1	P	7	3	0.43	YYnnYnn	1	1	0.45	hist	no
Cuba	cuba	1	K	20	7	0.35	nnnYnnYnnY	1	0	0.44	hist	no
Drug / Fentanyl	drug|fentanyl	1	K	0	0			1	1	0.44	hist	yes
DEI / Woke	dei|woke	1	K	15	6	0.4	nYYnnnnYnY	1	1	0.43	hist	no
National Security	national security	1	K	14	3	0.21	YnnYnYnnnn	1	1	0.43	hist	yes