Will Donald Trump say “Lucky”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Lucky” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Nov 26, 2025 (50%), most recently on Nov 25, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 38% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Lucky
- Probability
- 38% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
the state. Ashley, we're lucky to have you. Angie Nixon was the lead sponsor of a bill to let schools turn children, all of them…
…the daughter a terrible person and a liar. Everybody should be so lucky. Why would you shield somebody from that? Why would why would we…
…the governor, he's a crooked guy, because nobody can be that that lucky to -- I mean, when you look at all of that money,…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown
Polymarket
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Lucky”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Lucky” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Nov 26, 2025 (50%), most recently on Nov 25, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Lucky” next time?
- 38%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Lucky’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/lucky (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=lucky · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP