What is the probability Donald Trump says “NATO (5+ times)” next time?

40%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Donald Trump say “NATO” 5+ times?

Name: Donald Trump: “NATO (5+ times)” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “NATO” 5+ times at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Mar 13, 2025.

Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (5+, named speaker only) in 0.

–too little history for a probability (n=1)

Last 10: 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
Streak: said last time
Counts: named speaker only

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 04:54 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Donald Trump

NATO (5+ times)

Probability: – · n=1 (too little history)
Settled: 1/1 (100%)
Last 8 remarks: said in 0 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Donald TrumpspeakerDonald Trump: Announcement · Oct 20, 2026 · 1:08:57In transcript

…not nice. You know, we spend hundreds of billions a year on NATO and they said, no. But they were nice enough to give us…

Donald TrumpspeakerRemarks to the United Nations General Assembly in New York City · Sep 22, 2026 · 27:39In transcript

…addition to America and greatly protects them. It also very much enhances NATO with who has a great leader in. Mark, I know you're in…

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Every settled listing

newest first · 2 shown

Every settled listing of this word, newest first
Date	Listed as	Venue	Result
Apr 8, 2026	NATO (5+ times)	Kalshi	Void (did not qualify)
Mar 13, 2025	NATO 5+ times	Polymarket	Yes

Questions

How often does Donald Trump say “NATO (5+ times)”?: As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “NATO” 5+ times at the only occasion with a settled Polymarket mention market so far, on Mar 13, 2025.
What is the probability Donald Trump says “NATO (5+ times)” next time?: 40%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?: Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘NATO (5+ times)’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/nato-5plus (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=nato%20%285%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP