Will Donald Trump say “Lincoln”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Lincoln” at 2 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 8, 2025 (33%), most recently on Jul 3, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 45% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 2/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Lincoln
- Probability
- 45% · n=6
- Settled
- 2/6 (33%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…son was killed while watching and looking at the Washington Monument, the Lincoln Memorial. We were we were losing the You know what we're doing…
…that we have to go through, Tim? I don't think so. Abraham Lincoln, I met a young man from Israel. I said, "Who's your favorite…
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown
Polymarket
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Lincoln”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Lincoln” at 2 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Aug 8, 2025 (33%), most recently on Jul 3, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Lincoln” next time?
- 45%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Lincoln’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/lincoln (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=lincoln · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP