Donald Trump: Rally in Michigan, Oct 25, 2026
At the rally on Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said 23 of the 48 words Kalshi and Polymarket listed; Parrot’s count agreed with 29 of 31 checked settlements. Quotes below are at most 25 words each.
UpdatedMarkets
48 words · 23 settled yes · our count agreed on 29 of 31- Kalshi: named speaker only
Kalshi - Polymarket: named speaker only
Polymarket
| Word | Result | Our count | All speakers | Agrees | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran 5+ times | Yes | 9 | 11 | ✓ | 62%n=35 from settlement history | – |
| Nuclear 3+ times | Yes | 8 | 8 | ✓ | 75%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Ford / General Motors / GM | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 54%n=14 from settlement history | – |
| Communist / Communism | Yes | 6 | 6 | ✓ | 45%n=114 from settlement history | – |
| Dividend / Stimulus | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 91%n=41 from settlement history | – |
| Canada / Canadian | Yes | 3 | 6 | ✓ | 61%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Russia / Ukraine | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 57%n=32 from settlement history | – |
| Stock Market | Yes | 3 | 3 | ✓ | 49%n=190 from settlement history | – |
| Barack Hussein Obama | Yes | 2 | 2 | ✓ | 66%n=195 from settlement history | – |
| Auto Worker / Autoworker | Yes | 2 | 3 | ✓ | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 2 | 4 | ✓ | 35%n=115 from settlement history | – |
| Save America Act | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 78%n=81 from settlement history | – |
| Sleepy Joe | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 77%n=135 from settlement history | – |
| Cheat / Cheater / Cheating | Yes | 1 | 2 | ✓ | 63%n=43 from settlement history | – |
| Made in America / American Made | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 59%n=27 from settlement history | – |
| America First | Yes | 1 | 1 | ✓ | 41%n=112 from settlement history | – |
| Electric / Electricity | Yes | – | – | – | 64%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz / Blockade | Yes | – | – | – | 57%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Hormuz | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | 48%n=103 from settlement history | – |
| Ass | Yes | – | – | – | 46%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Maduro | Yes | – | – | – | 44%n=71 from settlement history | – |
| El-Sayed | Yes | 0 | 0 | ✗ | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Osama Bin Laden | Yes | – | – | – | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fraud 3+ times | No | 1 | 3 | ✓ | 16%n=13 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 67%n=102 from settlement history | – |
| Kamala | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 63%n=68 from settlement history | – |
| Million / Billion / Trillion 30+ times | No | – | – | – | 61%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| Gulf of America | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 53%n=49 from settlement history | – |
| SI / Super Intelligence | No | – | – | – | 51%n=17 from settlement history | – |
| Marxist | No | – | – | – | 51%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Transgender 7+ times | No | – | – | – | 48%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese 7+ times | No | – | – | – | 47%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Canada 4+ times | No | – | – | – | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Blockade | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 47%n=40 from settlement history | – |
| Hottest | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 46%n=348 from settlement history | – |
| Biden / Kamala / Obama 15+ times | No | – | – | – | 42%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Hell 15+ times | No | – | – | – | 40%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Palestine / Palestinian | No | – | – | – | 38%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Drill Baby Drill | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 30%n=119 from settlement history | – |
| Data Center | No | – | – | – | 28%n=34 from settlement history | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 25%n=275 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl / Deport / Deported | No | – | – | – | 23%n=8 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 19%n=69 from settlement history | – |
| Deport / Deported / Deportation | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 13%n=21 from settlement history | – |
| Peace in the Middle East | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 6%n=57 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 6%n=135 from settlement history | – |
| Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency | No | – | – | – | 4%n=64 from settlement history | – |
| Crypto / Bitcoin | No | 0 | 0 | ✓ | 4%n=530 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 26, 2026 07:45 UTC.
Transcript
quotes of at most 25 wordsCaptions · machine-attributed · RSBN (YouTube auto-captions) · Source · Quotes of at most 25 words; the full recording is on the publisher's official channel.
5 matches for “Canada”; 2 quoted, at least 25 words apart.
…came out of They're closing up in Mexico. They're closing up in Canada. They're building here and other places. Because just so you understand, Canada…
…to be able to even think about it. And it's true in Canada and Europe, they come to use our health care system because even…
Where the listed words were said
…death of the world's top sponsor of terrorism, the supreme leader of Iran, who killed many people. You know, they killed in the last nine…
…more coming. And what did I do? I mean, I stopped the nuclear threat of Iran. Would have been terrible. And I was supposed to…
…know, you have a an old I think it's a 1901 building, Ford, and uh I saw them, they were going to close it. It's…
…interesting. I'll be a witness. Most disgraceful of all, say campaigns with communist agitator Hassan You've heard all about this. Who says that America deserved…
…1776." That was not bad. That was not bad. The $5,000 Trump dividend is approximately $1 trillion. Think of it. So the money that's being…
…we were being dominated in space and now we're dominating China and Russia. We had great people put in space force is a big deal.…
…it, Mike. They had a little ticker on the side saying the stock market was up 602 points. Did you see it? That's just one…
Remember Barack Hussein Obama said, "We're not a manufacturing country." Exports have soared to the highest level in American history. So, so now what I…
…great. What a great job. Thank you very much. And he's an auto worker. I met him years ago during the first run. It's been…
…slaughter of the innocent men, women, and babies on October 7th in Israel. October one of the worst slaughters because of my position. I got…
…penalty. We will pass voter identification, proof of citizenship, and the Save America Act to defend our sacred American elections. And we will enshrine in…
…the middle." I had another case. I explained it yesterday. sometimes mimic sleepy Joe Biden when he speaks. First of all, he speaks for extremely…
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