Will Donald Trump say “Marxist”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Marxist” at 7 of 8 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Aug 23, 2024 (88%), most recently on Aug 6, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 51% (n=8, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 7/8Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes yes yes yes no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 26¢ Polymarket (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Marxist
- Probability
- 51% · n=8
- Settled
- 7/8 (88%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…to elect them. The sunshine state is not going to send a Marxist maniac to the Senate on November 3rd. You're going to send Ashley…
Every settled listing
newest first · 8 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 31, 2026 | Marxist |  Polymarket | Yes | 6 |
| Mar 17, 2025 | Marxist | Polymarket | No | – |
| Sep 24, 2024 | Marxist | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Sep 10, 2024 | Marxist | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Sep 7, 2024 | Marxist | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Sep 4, 2024 | Marxist | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Aug 29, 2024 | Marxist | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Aug 23, 2024 | Marxist | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Marxist”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Marxist” at 7 of 8 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Aug 23, 2024 (88%), most recently on Aug 6, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Marxist” next time?
- 51%, from settlement history (n=8). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Marxist’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/marxist (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=marxist · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP