Will Donald Trump say “Osama Bin Laden”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, Donald Trump said “Osama Bin Laden” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Oct 18, 2026 (50%), most recently on Oct 25, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 53% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 24, 2026 – Oct 25, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 13¢ Polymarket (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Osama Bin Laden
- Probability
- 53% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Counts: named speaker only
1 counted; 1 by speakers the rule does not count.
…for an organization that gave hundreds of thousands of dollars to Osama bin Laden and al-Qaeda. His sister celebrated terrorist slaughter of the innocent men,…
…worked for a designated terror group that provided financial support to Osama bin Laden, the Taliban, and also Hamas. now raising questions based on a…
Not counted under this market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | Osama Bin Laden |  Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Osama Bin Laden | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (0 of 7 known appearances transcribed)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Osama Bin Laden”?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, Donald Trump said “Osama Bin Laden” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Oct 18, 2026 (50%), most recently on Oct 25, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Osama Bin Laden” next time?
- 53%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Osama Bin Laden’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/osama-bin-laden (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=osama%20bin%20laden · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP