Will Donald Trump say “Reagan”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Reagan” at 5 of 13 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 25, 2024 (38%), most recently on Oct 1, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 47% (n=13, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2. 1 later rally without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no yes no yes no no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Reagan
- Probability
- 47% · n=13
- Settled
- 5/13 (38%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…say 53% say he is the Republican president they most admire. Ronald Reagan who traditionally has won that match. Donald Trump nearly triples up on…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 13 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2026 | Reagan |  Polymarket | No |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Reagan | Polymarket | Yes |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Reagan | Polymarket | No |
| Feb 24, 2026 | Reagan |  Kalshi | No |
| May 16, 2025 | Reagan | Polymarket | Yes |
| May 13, 2025 | Reagan | Polymarket | No |
| Nov 4, 2024 | Reagan | Polymarket | Yes |
| Oct 18, 2024 | Reagan | Polymarket | No |
| Oct 16, 2024 | Reagan | Polymarket | Yes |
| Oct 12, 2024 | Reagan | Polymarket | Yes |
| Oct 11, 2024 | Reagan | Polymarket | No |
| Sep 27, 2024 | Reagan | Polymarket | No |
| Sep 25, 2024 | Reagan | Polymarket | No |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Reagan”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Reagan” at 5 of 13 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Sep 25, 2024 (38%), most recently on Oct 1, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Reagan” next time?
- 47%, from settlement history (n=13). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Reagan’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/reagan (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=reagan · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP