Donald Trump: Remarks, May 6, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say during his Bilateral Meeting with Mark Carney?
Markets
20 words · 7 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tariff | Yes | 64%n=11 from settlement history | – |
| Trudeau | Yes | 37%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Congratulations | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Deal | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| USMCA / United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Water | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Aluminum | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Border | No | 54%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Reciprocal | No | 45%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl | No | 42%n=7 from settlement history | – |
| Brookfield | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Goldman | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Harvard | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Maple Syrup | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Sovereignty | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Statehood | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ultimatum | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Immigration | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Annexation | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Electricity | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXTRUMPMENTION-25MAY06-2 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP