Donald Trump: Keynote, Jun 17, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say at his Meeting with Mark Carney at the G7 summit?
Markets
20 words · 4 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Russia | Yes | 50%n=16 from settlement history | – |
| Governor | Yes | 43%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Trudeau | Yes | 42%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Water | Yes | 39%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Golden Dome | No | 51%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Steel | No | 51%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Pipeline | No | 44%n=6 from settlement history | – |
| Lumber | No | 41%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Defense | No | 41%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Fentanyl | No | 39%n=9 from settlement history | – |
| 51st | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Alberta | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Car | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Dairy | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Keystone | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| USMCA | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Aluminum | No | 37%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| NAFTA | No | 36%n=12 from settlement history | – |
| Budget | No | 35%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Oil | No | 34%n=4 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXDJTCANG7-25JUN17 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP