Donald Trump: Keynote, Jun 17, 2025
Kalshi What will Trump say at his Meeting with the President of Mexico at the G7 summit?
Markets
15 words · 0 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Biden | No | 69%n=28 from settlement history | – |
| Border | No | 60%n=15 from settlement history | – |
| Water | No | 48%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Los Angeles | No | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Newscum | No | 41%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Coyote | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Deportation | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Invasion | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Secure | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trafficking | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Wall | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Taco | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Fentanyl | No | 32%n=10 from settlement history | – |
| USMCA | No | 29%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| NAFTA | No | 29%n=13 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXDJTMEXG7-25JUN17 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP