Will Donald Trump say “Red Card”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Red Card” at 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jul 6, 2026 (67%), most recently on Jul 6, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 47% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 2/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Red Card
- Probability
- 47% · n=3
- Settled
- 2/3 (67%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown
Polymarket
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Red Card”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Red Card” at 2 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Jul 6, 2026 (67%), most recently on Jul 6, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Red Card” next time?
- 47%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Red Card’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/red-card (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=red%20card · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP