Will Donald Trump say “Biden / Obama” 3+ times?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Biden / Obama” 3+ times at 4 of 7 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Dec 18, 2025 (57%), most recently on Jul 8, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 49% (n=7, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 4 keynotes we have transcripts for (Jun 26, 2026 – Jul 15, 2026), it reached the market's count (3+, named speaker only) in 3. 1 later keynote without a transcript yet (Oct 8, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 4/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes yes no yes yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Biden / Obama 3+ times
- Probability
- 49% · n=7
- Settled
- 4/7 (57%)
- Last 4 keynotes
- said in 3 of 4
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…media. You know, I was telling him the other night I imitated Biden on the stage where he used to walk off walls and could…
…actually zero in 17 months. Who can believe it, right? Remember Joe Biden said we'd have to go to Congress to get a change. I…
Yeah. Sure, sure. We had a wonderful man who, during the Biden administration, was taken hostage in Russia. They claimed things -- we won't get…
…run in South Carolina? Am I in a different state? Maybe like Biden. Remember, he was in Florida and he thought he was in Maine.…
…look, it's been going on for a long time. But in the Biden administration, it was sick. Nick used his popular YouTube channel to reveal…
Every settled listing
newest first · 7 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 13, 2026 | Biden / Obama 3+ times |  Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Jul 8, 2026 | Biden / Obama 3+ times | Polymarket | Yes | 7 |
| Jun 25, 2026 | Biden / Obama 3+ times | Polymarket | Yes | 6 |
| Jun 18, 2026 | Biden / Obama 3+ times | Polymarket | No | 0 |
| Mar 19, 2026 | Biden / Obama 3+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Feb 12, 2026 | Biden / Obama 3+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Dec 18, 2025 | Biden / Obama 3+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Biden / Obama 3+ times”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Biden / Obama” 3+ times at 4 of 7 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Dec 18, 2025 (57%), most recently on Jul 8, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Biden / Obama 3+ times” next time?
- 49%, from settlement history (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Biden / Obama 3+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/biden-or-obama-3plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=biden%20%2F%20obama%20%283%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP