Will Donald Trump say “Christmas”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Christmas” at 9 of 14 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 11, 2025 (64%), most recently on Jun 26, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 54% (n=14, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 4 keynotes we have transcripts for (Jun 26, 2026 – Jul 15, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1. 1 later keynote without a transcript yet (Oct 8, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 5/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no yes yes yes no no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Christmas
- Probability
- 54% · n=14
- Settled
- 9/14 (64%)
- Last 4 keynotes
- said in 1 of 4
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 14 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 26, 2026 | Christmas |  Polymarket | Yes | 2 |
| May 31, 2026 | Christmas | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Apr 19, 2026 | Christmas | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Jan 4, 2026 | Christmas | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Dec 29, 2025 | Christmas |  Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 23, 2025 | Christmas | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Dec 22, 2025 | Christmas | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Christmas | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Christmas | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Dec 19, 2025 | Christmas | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 18, 2025 | Christmas | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Dec 17, 2025 | Christmas | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Dec 15, 2025 | Christmas | Kalshi | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (no known appearances yet; the post archive does not cover the window)) |
| Dec 11, 2025 | Christmas | Polymarket | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Christmas”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Christmas” at 9 of 14 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 11, 2025 (64%), most recently on Jun 26, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Christmas” next time?
- 54%, from settlement history (n=14). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Christmas’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/christma (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=christma · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP