Will Donald Trump say “Secretary of War”?
As of Oct 27, 2026, Donald Trump said “Secretary of War” at 2 of 4 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Nov 16, 2025 (50%), most recently on Mar 2, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 40% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 2/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Secretary of War
- Probability
- 40% · n=4
- Settled
- 2/4 (50%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…stealing from American families and American businesses. I want to thank Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, Attorney General Todd Blanche -- these are great people,…
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2026 | Secretary of War |  Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Secretary of War | Polymarket | No | – |
| Dec 18, 2025 | Secretary of War | Polymarket | No | – |
| Nov 16, 2025 | Secretary of War | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Secretary of War”?
- As of Oct 27, 2026, Donald Trump said “Secretary of War” at 2 of 4 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Nov 16, 2025 (50%), most recently on Mar 2, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Secretary of War” next time?
- 40%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Secretary of War’ mention history”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/secretary-of-war (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=secretary%20of%20war · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP