Will Donald Trump say “Border” 3+ times?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Border” 3+ times at 2 of 4 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Aug 22, 2024 (50%), most recently on Mar 14, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 41% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 rallies we have transcripts for (Aug 10, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (3+, named speaker only) in 6. 1 later rally without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 2/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Border 3+ times
- Probability
- 41% · n=4
- Settled
- 2/4 (50%)
- Last 8 rallies
- said in 6 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…He wants to take away your guns. He wants to open the borders. He wants to have transgender for everybody. It's a guy who's gone.…
…in American history. They allowed 25 million people to pour across our borders from all over the world. It was an invasion. That was like…
…mean, at the War Department, we've done the same on the southwest border with our interagency partners on law enforcement in cities all across America…
…it's a big reason. Take away your second amendment. Wants to open your borders. Wants to do so many things that you're just not going
…just such a big part of the country is corrupt. We need borders, we need good elections, we need great journalists and we have to…
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Border 3+ times |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Dec 18, 2025 | Border 3+ times | Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 14, 2025 | Border 3+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Aug 22, 2024 | Border 3+ times | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (the post archive does not cover the window)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Border 3+ times”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Border” 3+ times at 2 of 4 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Aug 22, 2024 (50%), most recently on Mar 14, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Border 3+ times” next time?
- 41%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Border 3+ times’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/border-3plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=border%20%283%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP