Will Donald Trump say “Tren de Aragua”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Tren de Aragua” at 7 of 14 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Oct 16, 2024 (50%), most recently on Dec 15, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 37% (n=14, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 4/10Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no yes no no yes no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Tren de Aragua
- Probability
- 37% · n=14
- Settled
- 7/14 (50%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…three months ago, we terminated the leader of the Venezuelan gang, Tren de Aragua Mexico is the epicenter of the cartel violence. Unfortunately, it's unacceptable…
Every settled listing
newest first · 14 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 7, 2026 | Tren de Aragua |  Polymarket | No | – |
| Mar 1, 2026 | Tren de Aragua | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Dec 18, 2025 | Tren de Aragua | Polymarket | No | – |
| Dec 15, 2025 | Tren de Aragua | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Tren de Aragua | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Nov 27, 2025 | Tren de Aragua | Polymarket | No | – |
| Sep 14, 2025 | Tren de Aragua | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Apr 14, 2025 | Tren de Aragua | Polymarket | No | – |
| Oct 26, 2024 | Tren de Aragua | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 23, 2024 | Tren de Aragua | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 22, 2024 | Tren de Aragua | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 19, 2024 | Tren de Aragua | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 18, 2024 | Tren de Aragua | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Oct 16, 2024 | Tren de Aragua | Polymarket | No | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Tren de Aragua”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Tren de Aragua” at 7 of 14 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Oct 16, 2024 (50%), most recently on Dec 15, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Tren de Aragua” next time?
- 37%, from settlement history (n=14). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Tren de Aragua’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/tren-de-aragua (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=tren%20de%20aragua · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP