Will Donald Trump say “Operation / Spear”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Operation / Spear” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Dec 18, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 38% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Operation / Spear
- Probability
- 38% · n=2
- Settled
- 0/2 (0%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…It was a horrible deal. We obliterated Iran's nuclear enrichment capacity with Operation Midnight Hammer. You remember that? Late at night, 1 in the morning,…
…sponsor of terror Iran so we obliterated Iran's nuclear enrichment capacity with operation midnight hammer and operation epic fuel Thank you. Thank you. Beautiful. And…
…Department of Homeland Security to jointly oversee vetted American companies taking cyber operations against these criminal networks. Through the Homeland Security Task Force and the…
…road to a nuclear weapon. We obliterated Iran's nuclear enrichment capacity with Operation Midnight Hammer, a beautiful operation, and Operation Epic Fury. And we defeated…
…they refused. They absolutely refused. That was a big mistake Then in Operation Midnight Hammer, the U.S. military obliterated their nuclear program beneath mountains of…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 22, 2025 | Operation / Spear |  Polymarket | No |
| Dec 18, 2025 | Operation / Spear | Polymarket | No |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Operation / Spear”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump did not say “Operation / Spear” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Dec 18, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Operation / Spear” next time?
- 38%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Operation / Spear’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/operation-or-spear (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=operation%20%2F%20spear · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP