# Donald Trump (donald-trump) · speech 2025-12-18 · 48 words in 52 rows (listings that settled differently) · K k:KXTRUMPMENTIONB-25DEC18 · P p:what-will-trump-say-at-national-defense-authorization-act-signing-on-december-18 · as_of 2026-10-24T05:43:33Z
# scope K named; P named · n/y settled before 2025-12-18 · tn/th blank: no speech transcripts yet · p_src prior = base rate, ranked after the rest · not advice: base rates, not forecasts; operators trade these markets (parrot.markets/disclosure); data CC BY 4.0, credit parrot.markets
# rules K k:KXTRUMPMENTIONB-25DEC18 ({word} = w of K rows): If Donald Trump says {word} as part of Address to the Nation on December 17th, then the market resolves to Yes.
# rules P p:what-will-trump-say-at-national-defense-authorization-act-signing-on-december-18 (every P row; the listed term = w): This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event.
# rows 1-35 of 52 by p · more: offset=35 (limit=0 lists all)
w	key	thr	v	n	y	rate	l10	p	p_src	res
Biden	biden	1	K	131	98	0.75	nnYYnYnYnY	0.69	hist	yes
Big Beautiful Bill	big beautiful bill	1	P	25	17	0.68	YnYnYYYYYY	0.62	hist	no
Christmas	christma	1	K	3	3	1	YYY	0.59	hist	yes
Tariff	tariff	1	K	91	63	0.69	nnYYYYnYnn	0.59	hist	yes
Big Beautiful Bill	big beautiful bill	1	K	25	17	0.68	YnYnYYYYYY	0.59	hist	yes
NATO	nato	1	P	36	17	0.47	nnYYnnYnYY	0.59	hist	no
Gulf of America	gulf of america	1	K	3	3	1	YYY	0.57	hist	no
Drug / Cartel	cartel|drug	1	K	0	0			0.57	hist	yes
China	china	1	KP	86	59	0.69	nnnnYYnnnn	0.56	hist	no
Hell	hell	1	P	14	7	0.5	nnYnYYnnYY	0.56	hist	no
Nuclear	nuclear	1	K	66	42	0.64	nnnYnYYYYY	0.55	hist	yes
Nuclear	nuclear	1	P	66	42	0.64	nnnYnYYYYY	0.53	hist	no
Ukraine	ukraine	1	K	34	20	0.59	YYYnnYYnnY	0.52	hist	no
Eight War	eight war	1	K	17	10	0.59	nYnnnYYYYn	0.52	hist	yes
Healthcare	healthcare	1	K	15	8	0.53	YnYYYnnnnY	0.52	hist	yes
Million / Billion / Trillion 20+ times	billion|million|trillion#20	20	P	1	1	1	Y	0.51	hist	no
Hanukkah	hanukkah	1	K	5	3	0.6	YYYnn	0.5	hist	no
Hottest	hottest	1	K	98	54	0.55	YnYYYnnnnY	0.5	hist	yes
Middle East	middle east	1	K	23	12	0.52	nYYYnnnnYY	0.5	hist	yes
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	K	70	27	0.39	nnYYnYnnYY	0.5	hist	yes
Election	election	1	K	52	31	0.6	YYYnYnnYnY	0.48	hist	yes
Eight War	eight war	1	P	17	10	0.59	nYnnnYYYYn	0.48	hist	no
AI / Artificial Intelligence	ai|artificial intelligence	1	P	70	27	0.39	nnYYnYnnYY	0.47	hist	no
Secretary of War	secretary of war	1	P	1	1	1	Y	0.46	hist	no
Affordable / Affordability	affordability|affordable	1	K	19	9	0.47	YnnnYYnnnY	0.46	hist	yes
Biden / Obama 3+ times	biden|obama#3	3	P	0	0			0.45	hist	no
Border 3+ times	border#3	3	P	2	2	1	YY	0.43	hist	no
Pete / Hegseth	hegseth|pete	1	P	2	2	1	YY	0.43	hist	no
Tren de Aragua	tren de aragua	1	P	11	7	0.64	YYYYYnYnnY	0.43	hist	no
Fentanyl	fentanyl	1	K	22	6	0.27	nnnnnnnYYY	0.42	hist	no
Golden Dome	golden dome	1	P	11	4	0.36	YYnnnnnYnn	0.41	hist	no
B-2	b 2	1	P	1	0	0	n	0.4	hist	no
Invasion	invasion	1	P	1	0	0	n	0.4	hist	no
Submarine	submarine	1	P	2	1	0.5	Yn	0.39	hist	no
Ukraine 5+ times	ukraine#5	5	P	2	0	0	nn	0.39	hist	no