Will Donald Trump say “Pete / Hegseth”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Pete / Hegseth” at 4 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 27, 2025 (67%), most recently on Mar 2, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 43% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.
- Last 10
- 4/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no yes no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Pete / Hegseth
- Probability
- 43% · n=6
- Settled
- 4/6 (67%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 1 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…It was going to be close. Not close anymore because he's fantastic. Pete Ricketts is going to be a continuation of the US Senate and…
…American families and American businesses. I want to thank Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, Attorney General Todd Blanche -- these are great people, by the…
On Israel/Iran, can you fill us in on what Secretary Hegseth spoke about with Prime Minister Netanyahu?
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 2, 2026 | Pete / Hegseth |  Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Jan 10, 2026 | Pete / Hegseth | Kalshi | No | – |
| Jan 3, 2026 | Pete / Hegseth | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Dec 18, 2025 | Pete / Hegseth |  Polymarket | No | – |
| May 9, 2025 | Pete / Hegseth | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Feb 27, 2025 | Pete/Hegseth | Kalshi | Yes | – |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Pete / Hegseth”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Pete / Hegseth” at 4 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Feb 27, 2025 (67%), most recently on Mar 2, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Pete / Hegseth” next time?
- 43%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Pete / Hegseth’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/hegseth-or-pete (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=hegseth%20%2F%20pete · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP