Will Donald Trump say “Drug / Cartel”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Drug / Cartel” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Dec 18, 2025.
Of the last 6 speeches we have transcripts for (Jul 16, 2026 – Sep 22, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Drug / Cartel
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 6 speeches
- said in 4 of 6
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have; the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
drug dealers, prisoners all over the country. They came and we now think that Georgia should reward him for his treachery by defeating him. We…
…I got most favored nation agreements to reduce the cost of prescription drugs from the highest drug price in the history of our country to…
…to evade capture. He's explaining to them how to evade capture, murderers, drug dealers, how to evade capture. This is not working for Iowa. He…
…all over the world prisons. They emptied out their prisons. They were drug dealers. They were murderers. 11,888 murders. And I'll tell you what, it's…
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 18, 2025 | Drug / Cartel |  Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Drug / Cartel”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Drug / Cartel” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Dec 18, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Drug / Cartel” next time?
- 48%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Drug / Cartel’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/cartel-or-drug (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=cartel%20%2F%20drug · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP