Will Donald Trump say “Hanukkah”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Hanukkah” at 4 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 7, 2025 (50%), most recently on Dec 17, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 42% (n=8, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (3 rallies, 3 remarks, 2 speeches; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 23, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 24, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 4/8Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no yes no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Hanukkah
- Probability
- 42% · n=8
- Settled
- 4/8 (50%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 8 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 21, 2025 | Hanukkah |  Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Hanukkah |  Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 18, 2025 | Hanukkah | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 17, 2025 | Hanukkah | Polymarket | No | – |
| Dec 16, 2025 | Hanukkah | Kalshi | No | – |
| Dec 12, 2025 | Hanukkah | Kalshi | Yes | – |
| Dec 11, 2025 | Hanukkah | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Dec 7, 2025 | Hanukkah | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Hanukkah”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “Hanukkah” at 4 of 8 occasions with a settled Kalshi or Polymarket mention market since Dec 7, 2025 (50%), most recently on Dec 17, 2025.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Hanukkah” next time?
- 42%, from settlement history (n=8). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Hanukkah’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/hanukkah (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=hanukkah · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP