Will Donald Trump say “World War 3”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “World War 3” at 4 of 9 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Aug 21, 2024 (44%), most recently on Oct 3, 2024. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 39% (n=9, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 remarks we have transcripts for (Sep 21, 2026 – Oct 21, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 4/9Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no yes yes yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
World War 3
- Probability
- 39% · n=9
- Settled
- 4/9 (44%)
- Last 8 remarks
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 9 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 18, 2025 | World War 3 |  Polymarket | No |
| Oct 28, 2025 | World War 3 | Polymarket | No |
| Oct 3, 2024 | World War 3 | Polymarket | Yes |
| Oct 1, 2024 | World War 3 | Polymarket | Yes |
| Sep 28, 2024 | World War 3 | Polymarket | Yes |
| Aug 29, 2024 | World War 3 | Polymarket | No |
| Aug 23, 2024 | World War 3 | Polymarket | No |
| Aug 22, 2024 | World War 3 | Polymarket | No |
| Aug 21, 2024 | World War 3 | Polymarket | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “World War 3”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Donald Trump said “World War 3” at 4 of 9 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Aug 21, 2024 (44%), most recently on Oct 3, 2024.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “World War 3” next time?
- 39%, from settlement history (n=9). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘World War 3’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/world-war-3 (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=world%20war%203 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP