Will Donald Trump say “Shit”?
As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Shit” at 6 of 7 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jul 18, 2025 (86%), most recently on Oct 12, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 61% (n=7, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (4 rallies, 3 remarks, 1 speech; Sep 22, 2026 – Oct 24, 2026), it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0. 1 later appearance without a transcript yet (Oct 25, 2026) is not counted.
- Last 10
- 6/7Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes no yes yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 4 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
- Market
- 96¢ Polymarket (may be delayed)
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Donald Trump
Shit
- Probability
- 61% · n=7
- Settled
- 6/7 (86%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 7 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result | Our count |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 31, 2026 | Shit |  Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · not found in what we could read (6 of 31 known appearances transcribed)) |
| Oct 12, 2026 | Shit | Polymarket | Yes | – |
| Sep 30, 2026 | Shit | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Shit | Polymarket | Yes | 1 |
| Apr 26, 2026 | Shit | Polymarket | No | – (settled no · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Aug 31, 2025 | Shit | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
| Jul 18, 2025 | Shit | Polymarket | Yes | – (settled yes · nothing to count yet (no known appearances yet)) |
Questions
- How often does Donald Trump say “Shit”?
- As of Oct 25, 2026, Donald Trump said “Shit” at 6 of 7 occasions with a settled Polymarket mention market since Jul 18, 2025 (86%), most recently on Oct 12, 2026.
- What is the probability Donald Trump says “Shit” next time?
- 61%, from settlement history (n=7). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Donald Trump: ‘Shit’ mention history”, as of Oct 25, 2026, https://parrot.markets/trump/words/shit (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=donald-trump&word=shit · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=donald-trump&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP