Karoline Leavitt
As of Oct 23, 2026, Kalshi has settled 144 word markets on Karoline Leavitt’s appearances since 2025, on 84 different words; most reliably said: “Democrat” (5 of 6).
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
History Wall
1–40 of 85, most settled first · page 1 of 2| Word | Mar 15 ’25episode | Jan 13 ’26interview | Mar 7interview | Apr 2remarks | Apr 22interview | Aug 27interview | Sep 10latest | Last 7 | Settled | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | Not listed: Democrat, Mar 15 ’25 episode | Settled yes: Democrat, Jan 13 ’26 interview | Settled yes: Democrat, Mar 7 interview | Settled yes: Democrat, Apr 2 remarks | Settled no: Democrat, Apr 22 interview | Settled yes: Democrat, Aug 27 interview | Settled yes: Democrat, Sep 10 speech | 5/683% | 5/683% | 59%n=6 from settlement history |
| Biden | Not listed: Biden, Mar 15 ’25 episode | Settled no: Biden, Jan 13 ’26 interview | Settled no: Biden, Mar 7 interview | Settled yes: Biden, Apr 2 remarks | Settled no: Biden, Apr 22 interview | Settled yes: Biden, Aug 27 interview | Settled yes: Biden, Sep 10 speech | 3/650% | 3/650% | 53%n=6 from settlement history |
| Tariff | Settled yes: Tariff, Mar 15 ’25 episode | Not listed: Tariff, Jan 13 ’26 interview | Settled no: Tariff, Mar 7 interview | Settled no: Tariff, Apr 2 remarks | Settled no: Tariff, Apr 22 interview | Settled no: Tariff, Aug 27 interview | Settled no: Tariff, Sep 10 speech | 1/617% | 1/617% | 26%n=6 from settlement history |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Mar 15 ’25 episode | Not listed: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Jan 13 ’26 interview | Settled no: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Mar 7 interview | Settled no: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Apr 2 remarks | Settled no: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Apr 22 interview | Settled yes: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Aug 27 interview | Settled yes: Afford / Affordable / Affordability, Sep 10 speech | 2/540% | 2/540% | 50%n=5 from settlement history |
| Fake News | Not listed: Fake News, Mar 15 ’25 episode | Not listed: Fake News, Jan 13 ’26 interview | Not listed: Fake News, Mar 7 interview | Settled yes: Fake News, Apr 2 remarks | Settled no: Fake News, Apr 22 interview | Settled no: Fake News, Aug 27 interview | Settled yes: Fake News, Sep 10 speech | 2/450% | 2/450% | 47%n=4 from settlement history |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Mar 15 ’25 episode | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Jan 13 ’26 interview | Settled yes: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Mar 7 interview | Settled no: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Apr 2 remarks | Settled yes: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Apr 22 interview | Settled no: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Aug 27 interview | Not listed: Oil / Gas / Gasoline, Sep 10 speech | 2/450% | 2/450% | 40%n=4 from settlement history |
| Radical Leftnever said | Not listed: Radical Left, Mar 15 ’25 episode | Settled no: Radical Left, Jan 13 ’26 interview | Not listed: Radical Left, Mar 7 interview | Settled no: Radical Left, Apr 2 remarks | Settled no: Radical Left, Apr 22 interview | Settled no: Radical Left, Aug 27 interview | Not listed: Radical Left, Sep 10 speech | 0/40% | 0/40% | 26%n=4 from settlement history |
| Stock Marketnever said | Not listed: Stock Market, Mar 15 ’25 episode | Not listed: Stock Market, Jan 13 ’26 interview | Not listed: Stock Market, Mar 7 interview | Settled no: Stock Market, Apr 2 remarks | Settled no: Stock Market, Apr 22 interview | Settled no: Stock Market, Aug 27 interview | Settled no: Stock Market, Sep 10 speech | 0/40% | 0/40% | 26%n=4 from settlement history |
| Supreme Courtnever said | Not listed: Supreme Court, Mar 15 ’25 episode | Not listed: Supreme Court, Jan 13 ’26 interview | Settled no: Supreme Court, Mar 7 interview | Settled no: Supreme Court, Apr 2 remarks | Settled no: Supreme Court, Apr 22 interview | Settled no: Supreme Court, Aug 27 interview | Not listed: Supreme Court, Sep 10 speech | 0/40% | 0/40% | 26%n=4 from settlement history |
| Illegal Alien | Not listed: Illegal Alien, Mar 15 ’25 episode | Settled yes: Illegal Alien, Jan 13 ’26 interview | Not listed: Illegal Alien, Mar 7 interview | Not listed: Illegal Alien, Apr 2 remarks | Not listed: Illegal Alien, Apr 22 interview | Settled yes: Illegal Alien, Aug 27 interview | Settled yes: Illegal Alien, Sep 10 speech | 3/3100% | 3/3100% | 59%n=3 from settlement history |
| Border | Not listed: Border, Mar 15 ’25 episode | Not listed: Border, Jan 13 ’26 interview | Settled no: Border, Mar 7 interview | Not listed: Border, Apr 2 remarks | Not listed: Border, Apr 22 interview | Settled yes: Border, Aug 27 interview | Settled yes: Border, Sep 10 speech | 2/367% | 2/367% | 55%n=3 from settlement history |
| Ceasefire | Settled no: Ceasefire, Mar 15 ’25 episode | Not listed: Ceasefire, Jan 13 ’26 interview | Not listed: Ceasefire, Mar 7 interview | Not listed: Ceasefire, Apr 2 remarks | Settled yes: Ceasefire, Apr 22 interview | Settled no: Ceasefire, Aug 27 interview | Not listed: Ceasefire, Sep 10 speech | 1/333% | 1/333% | 38%n=3 from settlement history |
| Fraud | Not listed: Fraud, Mar 15 ’25 episode | Settled no: Fraud, Jan 13 ’26 interview | Settled no: Fraud, Mar 7 interview | Settled yes: Fraud, Apr 2 remarks | Not listed: Fraud, Apr 22 interview | Not listed: Fraud, Aug 27 interview | Not listed: Fraud, Sep 10 speech | 1/333% | 1/333% | 40%n=3 from settlement history |
| ICE / National Guard | Not listed: ICE / National Guard, Mar 15 ’25 episode | Settled yes: ICE / National Guard, Jan 13 ’26 interview | Settled no: ICE / National Guard, Mar 7 interview | Not listed: ICE / National Guard, Apr 2 remarks | Not listed: ICE / National Guard, Apr 22 interview | Settled no: ICE / National Guard, Aug 27 interview | Not listed: ICE / National Guard, Sep 10 speech | 1/333% | 1/333% | 34%n=3 from settlement history |
| Israel / Israeli | Not listed: Israel / Israeli, Mar 15 ’25 episode | Not listed: Israel / Israeli, Jan 13 ’26 interview | Settled no: Israel / Israeli, Mar 7 interview | Settled no: Israel / Israeli, Apr 2 remarks | Settled yes: Israel / Israeli, Apr 22 interview | Not listed: Israel / Israeli, Aug 27 interview | Not listed: Israel / Israeli, Sep 10 speech | 1/333% | 1/333% | 41%n=3 from settlement history |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | Settled no: Shutdown / Shut Down, Mar 15 ’25 episode | Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Jan 13 ’26 interview | Settled no: Shutdown / Shut Down, Mar 7 interview | Settled no: Shutdown / Shut Down, Apr 2 remarks | Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Apr 22 interview | Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Aug 27 interview | Not listed: Shutdown / Shut Down, Sep 10 speech | 0/30% | 0/30% | 30%n=3 from settlement history |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | Not listed: Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation, Mar 15 ’25 episode | Not listed: Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation, Jan 13 ’26 interview | Not listed: Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation, Mar 7 interview | Not listed: Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation, Apr 2 remarks | Settled yes: Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation, Apr 22 interview | Settled yes: Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation, Aug 27 interview | Not listed: Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation, Sep 10 speech | 2/2100% | 2/2100% | 56%n=2 from settlement history |
| China / Chinese | Not listed: China / Chinese, Mar 15 ’25 episode | Not listed: China / Chinese, Jan 13 ’26 interview | Not listed: China / Chinese, Mar 7 interview | Not listed: China / Chinese, Apr 2 remarks | Not listed: China / Chinese, Apr 22 interview | Settled yes: China / Chinese, Aug 27 interview | Settled no: China / Chinese, Sep 10 speech | 1/250% | 1/250% | 40%n=2 from settlement history |
| Election / Midterm | Not listed: Election / Midterm, Mar 15 ’25 episode | Not listed: Election / Midterm, Jan 13 ’26 interview | Not listed: Election / Midterm, Mar 7 interview | Not listed: Election / Midterm, Apr 2 remarks | Not listed: Election / Midterm, Apr 22 interview | Settled yes: Election / Midterm, Aug 27 interview | Settled no: Election / Midterm, Sep 10 speech | 1/250% | 1/250% | 40%n=2 from settlement history |
| Epic Fury | Not listed: Epic Fury, Mar 15 ’25 episode | Not listed: Epic Fury, Jan 13 ’26 interview | Settled yes: Epic Fury, Mar 7 interview | Settled no: Epic Fury, Apr 2 remarks | Not listed: Epic Fury, Apr 22 interview | Not listed: Epic Fury, Aug 27 interview | Not listed: Epic Fury, Sep 10 speech | 1/250% | 1/250% | 38%n=2 from settlement history |
| Inflation | Not listed: Inflation, Mar 15 ’25 episode | Not listed: Inflation, Jan 13 ’26 interview | Not listed: Inflation, Mar 7 interview | Not listed: Inflation, Apr 2 remarks | Not listed: Inflation, Apr 22 interview | Settled yes: Inflation, Aug 27 interview | Settled no: Inflation, Sep 10 speech | 1/250% | 1/250% | 40%n=2 from settlement history |
| Iran | Not listed: Iran, Mar 15 ’25 episode | Not listed: Iran, Jan 13 ’26 interview | Settled yes: Iran, Mar 7 interview | Settled no: Iran, Apr 2 remarks | Not listed: Iran, Apr 22 interview | Not listed: Iran, Aug 27 interview | Not listed: Iran, Sep 10 speech | 1/250% | 1/250% | 38%n=2 from settlement history |
| Iran / Iranian | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Mar 15 ’25 episode | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Jan 13 ’26 interview | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Mar 7 interview | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Apr 2 remarks | Not listed: Iran / Iranian, Apr 22 interview | Settled yes: Iran / Iranian, Aug 27 interview | Settled no: Iran / Iranian, Sep 10 speech | 1/250% | 1/250% | 40%n=2 from settlement history |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | Not listed: MAGA / Make America Great Again, Mar 15 ’25 episode | Not listed: MAGA / Make America Great Again, Jan 13 ’26 interview | Not listed: MAGA / Make America Great Again, Mar 7 interview | Not listed: MAGA / Make America Great Again, Apr 2 remarks | Not listed: MAGA / Make America Great Again, Apr 22 interview | Settled no: MAGA / Make America Great Again, Aug 27 interview | Settled yes: MAGA / Make America Great Again, Sep 10 speech | 1/250% | 1/250% | 47%n=2 from settlement history |
| Nuclear | Not listed: Nuclear, Mar 15 ’25 episode | Not listed: Nuclear, Jan 13 ’26 interview | Not listed: Nuclear, Mar 7 interview | Settled no: Nuclear, Apr 2 remarks | Settled yes: Nuclear, Apr 22 interview | Not listed: Nuclear, Aug 27 interview | Not listed: Nuclear, Sep 10 speech | 1/250% | 1/250% | 44%n=2 from settlement history |
| Save Act / Save America Act | Not listed: Save Act / Save America Act, Mar 15 ’25 episode | Not listed: Save Act / Save America Act, Jan 13 ’26 interview | Not listed: Save Act / Save America Act, Mar 7 interview | Settled yes: Save Act / Save America Act, Apr 2 remarks | Settled no: Save Act / Save America Act, Apr 22 interview | Not listed: Save Act / Save America Act, Aug 27 interview | Not listed: Save Act / Save America Act, Sep 10 speech | 1/250% | 1/250% | 40%n=2 from settlement history |
| America First | Not listed: America First, Mar 15 ’25 episode | Not listed: America First, Jan 13 ’26 interview | Not listed: America First, Mar 7 interview | Settled no: America First, Apr 2 remarks | Settled no: America First, Apr 22 interview | Not listed: America First, Aug 27 interview | Not listed: America First, Sep 10 speech | 0/20% | 0/20% | 32%n=2 from settlement history |
| Affordable / Affordability | Not listed: Affordable / Affordability, Mar 15 ’25 episode | Settled yes: Affordable / Affordability, Jan 13 ’26 interview | Not listed: Affordable / Affordability, Mar 7 interview | Not listed: Affordable / Affordability, Apr 2 remarks | Not listed: Affordable / Affordability, Apr 22 interview | Not listed: Affordable / Affordability, Aug 27 interview | Not listed: Affordable / Affordability, Sep 10 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Pregnant / Baby | Not listed: Pregnant / Baby, Mar 15 ’25 episode | Not listed: Pregnant / Baby, Jan 13 ’26 interview | Not listed: Pregnant / Baby, Mar 7 interview | Settled yes: Pregnant / Baby, Apr 2 remarks | Not listed: Pregnant / Baby, Apr 22 interview | Not listed: Pregnant / Baby, Aug 27 interview | Not listed: Pregnant / Baby, Sep 10 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Blockade | Not listed: Blockade, Mar 15 ’25 episode | Not listed: Blockade, Jan 13 ’26 interview | Not listed: Blockade, Mar 7 interview | Not listed: Blockade, Apr 2 remarks | Settled yes: Blockade, Apr 22 interview | Not listed: Blockade, Aug 27 interview | Not listed: Blockade, Sep 10 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Boat / Ship | Not listed: Boat / Ship, Mar 15 ’25 episode | Not listed: Boat / Ship, Jan 13 ’26 interview | Not listed: Boat / Ship, Mar 7 interview | Not listed: Boat / Ship, Apr 2 remarks | Settled yes: Boat / Ship, Apr 22 interview | Not listed: Boat / Ship, Aug 27 interview | Not listed: Boat / Ship, Sep 10 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Campaign / Campaigned | Not listed: Campaign / Campaigned, Mar 15 ’25 episode | Not listed: Campaign / Campaigned, Jan 13 ’26 interview | Not listed: Campaign / Campaigned, Mar 7 interview | Settled yes: Campaign / Campaigned, Apr 2 remarks | Not listed: Campaign / Campaigned, Apr 22 interview | Not listed: Campaign / Campaigned, Aug 27 interview | Not listed: Campaign / Campaigned, Sep 10 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| China / Tariff | Not listed: China / Tariff, Mar 15 ’25 episode | Settled yes: China / Tariff, Jan 13 ’26 interview | Not listed: China / Tariff, Mar 7 interview | Not listed: China / Tariff, Apr 2 remarks | Not listed: China / Tariff, Apr 22 interview | Not listed: China / Tariff, Aug 27 interview | Not listed: China / Tariff, Sep 10 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| College | Not listed: College, Mar 15 ’25 episode | Not listed: College, Jan 13 ’26 interview | Settled yes: College, Mar 7 interview | Not listed: College, Apr 2 remarks | Not listed: College, Apr 22 interview | Not listed: College, Aug 27 interview | Not listed: College, Sep 10 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Common Sense | Not listed: Common Sense, Mar 15 ’25 episode | Not listed: Common Sense, Jan 13 ’26 interview | Not listed: Common Sense, Mar 7 interview | Settled yes: Common Sense, Apr 2 remarks | Not listed: Common Sense, Apr 22 interview | Not listed: Common Sense, Aug 27 interview | Not listed: Common Sense, Sep 10 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| God3+ times | Not listed: God (3+ times), Mar 15 ’25 episode | Not listed: God (3+ times), Jan 13 ’26 interview | Not listed: God (3+ times), Mar 7 interview | Settled yes: God (3+ times), Apr 2 remarks | Not listed: God (3+ times), Apr 22 interview | Not listed: God (3+ times), Aug 27 interview | Not listed: God (3+ times), Sep 10 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Home / Housing | Not listed: Home / Housing, Mar 15 ’25 episode | Settled yes: Home / Housing, Jan 13 ’26 interview | Not listed: Home / Housing, Mar 7 interview | Not listed: Home / Housing, Apr 2 remarks | Not listed: Home / Housing, Apr 22 interview | Not listed: Home / Housing, Aug 27 interview | Not listed: Home / Housing, Sep 10 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| ICE / TSA | Not listed: ICE / TSA, Mar 15 ’25 episode | Not listed: ICE / TSA, Jan 13 ’26 interview | Not listed: ICE / TSA, Mar 7 interview | Settled yes: ICE / TSA, Apr 2 remarks | Not listed: ICE / TSA, Apr 22 interview | Not listed: ICE / TSA, Aug 27 interview | Not listed: ICE / TSA, Sep 10 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| ID / Identification | Not listed: ID / Identification, Mar 15 ’25 episode | Not listed: ID / Identification, Jan 13 ’26 interview | Not listed: ID / Identification, Mar 7 interview | Settled yes: ID / Identification, Apr 2 remarks | Not listed: ID / Identification, Apr 22 interview | Not listed: ID / Identification, Aug 27 interview | Not listed: ID / Identification, Sep 10 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
| Iran3+ times | Not listed: Iran (3+ times), Mar 15 ’25 episode | Not listed: Iran (3+ times), Jan 13 ’26 interview | Not listed: Iran (3+ times), Mar 7 interview | Not listed: Iran (3+ times), Apr 2 remarks | Settled yes: Iran (3+ times), Apr 22 interview | Not listed: Iran (3+ times), Aug 27 interview | Not listed: Iran (3+ times), Sep 10 speech | 1/1100% | 1/1100% | –n=1 too little history for a probability |
- Y: settled yes (a number: our count)
- N: settled no
- not listed
- probability next time, with n
- Select a word or a cell for its quotes
What the columns mean
- Last N
- of the appearances shown, how many counted as said
- Settled
- every settled market of the word: said / listed
- Probability
- the calibrated probability for the next listing; n is the settled observations behind it when it was computed, '+tx' adds the transcripts, 'new' means too little history
Appearances and settled record
latest 7Settled results come from the venues. Our own transcript counts appear here once transcripts arrive for these appearances. How we check.
| Date | Appearance | Text | Words | Settled | Our count agreed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | SpeechWhat will Karoline Leavitt say during RNC Midterm Convention? | no transcript | 18 | 9 yes · 9 no | – |
| Aug 27, 2026 | InterviewWhat will Karoline Leavitt say during Fox & Friends? | no transcript | 23 | 10 yes · 13 no | – |
| Apr 22, 2026 | InterviewWhat will Karoline Leavitt say during her Fox News interview? | no transcript | 22 | 8 yes · 14 no | – |
| Apr 2, 2026 | RemarksWhat will Karoline Leavitt say at the Turning Point Tour? | no transcript | 31 | 11 yes · 20 no | – |
| Mar 7, 2026 | InterviewWhat will Karoline Leavitt say during her Fox News interview? | no transcript | 18 | 7 yes · 11 no | – |
| Jan 13, 2026 | InterviewWhat will Karoline Leavitt say during her Fox Interview? | no transcript | 16 | 7 yes · 9 no | – |
| Mar 15, 2025 | EpisodeWhat will Karoline Leavitt say on Sunday Morning Futures? | no transcript | 20 | 1 yes · 19 no | – |
Citeparrot.markets, “Karoline Leavitt: mention market word history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/karoline-leavitt (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/entity/karoline-leavitt · words: /api/v1/history?entity=karoline-leavitt · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP