Will Karoline Leavitt say “Iran” 3+ times?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Karoline Leavitt said “Iran” 3+ times at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Apr 22, 2026.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press briefings; Mar 10, 2026 – Jul 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 interviews have transcripts, it reached the market's count (3+, named speaker only) in 6.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Karoline Leavitt
Iran (3+ times)
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 6 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…you one other question? Just playing devil's advocate, why does Saudi Arabia get a civilian nuclear deal but Iran doesn't get a civilian nuclear deal?
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…never targets civilians or children, unlike the other side of this conflict, Iran, who is well-known for killing women and children and innocent people in…
…I will reiterate is that the President's red lines with respect to Iran have been made very, very clear, not just to the American public,…
…in his interview yesterday, and it's obviously in the best interest of Iran to meet the president's demands. I think he's made his red lines…
…see all of you here today. Before I discuss the ceasefire with Iran, I have a quick update from the First Lady of the United…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 22, 2026 | Iran (3+ times) |  Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Karoline Leavitt say “Iran (3+ times)”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Karoline Leavitt said “Iran” 3+ times at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Apr 22, 2026.
- What is the probability Karoline Leavitt says “Iran (3+ times)” next time?
- 47%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Karoline Leavitt: ‘Iran (3+ times)’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/karoline-leavitt/words/iran-3plus (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=karoline-leavitt&word=iran%20%283%2B%20times%29 · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=karoline-leavitt&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP