Will Karoline Leavitt say “Illegal Alien”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Karoline Leavitt said “Illegal Alien” at 3 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 13, 2026 (100%), most recently on Sep 10, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 59% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press briefings; Mar 10, 2026 – Jul 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 speeches have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 5.
- Last 10
- 3/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Karoline Leavitt
Illegal Alien
- Probability
- 59% · n=3
- Settled
- 3/3 (100%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 5 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…she realizes this administration is serious about getting to the bottom of illegal aliens voting and being on our voter rolls in our country. The…
…confirmed that, for the 14th straight month, this administration has released zero illegal aliens into the United States. Again, let me reiterate the 14th straight…
…overtime. And there was this narrative that I think over two million illegal aliens have either voluntarily deported or have been deported and that there…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Democrats refuse to fund ICE because they want millions and millions of illegal aliens to pour into the country, just like they were under the…
…in Congress have kept DHS shut down because they care more about illegal aliens than American citizens. You have Democrat elected representatives in states across…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | Illegal Alien |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | Yes |
| Jan 13, 2026 | Illegal Alien | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Karoline Leavitt say “Illegal Alien”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Karoline Leavitt said “Illegal Alien” at 3 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 13, 2026 (100%), most recently on Sep 10, 2026.
- What is the probability Karoline Leavitt says “Illegal Alien” next time?
- 59%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Karoline Leavitt: ‘Illegal Alien’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/karoline-leavitt/words/illegal-alien (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=karoline-leavitt&word=illegal%20alien · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=karoline-leavitt&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP