Will Karoline Leavitt say “Campaign / Campaigned”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, Karoline Leavitt said “Campaign / Campaigned” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Apr 2, 2026.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press briefings; Mar 10, 2026 – Jul 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Karoline Leavitt
Campaign / Campaigned
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 4 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…that ICE agents need in order to continuing -- continue their deportation campaign of the worst of the worst illegal alien criminals from our country.…
On the campaign trail in 2024, President Trump looked voters in the eye and promised them he would sign the largest tax cuts in the…
…Bush said in a message to the Iraqi people that, "The military campaign was directed against the lawless men who rule your country and not…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…The Biden Department of Justice was fully on board with this lawfare campaign. And in fact, this story that was concocted by Congressman Raskin was…
10 days in, this campaign has been a resounding success thus far and America's warriors are winning this important fight at an even faster pace…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2026 | Campaign / Campaigned |  Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Karoline Leavitt say “Campaign / Campaigned”?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, Karoline Leavitt said “Campaign / Campaigned” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Apr 2, 2026.
- What is the probability Karoline Leavitt says “Campaign / Campaigned” next time?
- 45%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Karoline Leavitt: ‘Campaign / Campaigned’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/karoline-leavitt/words/campaign-or-campaigned (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=karoline-leavitt&word=campaign%20%2F%20campaigned · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=karoline-leavitt&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP