Karoline Leavitt: Interview, Apr 22, 2026
Kalshi What will Karoline Leavitt say during her Fox News interview?
Markets
21 words · 8 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | Yes | 42%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Blockade | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Boat / Ship | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Iran 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Ceasefire | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Nuclear | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Israel / Israeli | Yes | 26%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Democrat | No | 60%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Save Act / Save America Act | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Hormuz | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Immigrant / Immigration | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| JD / Vance | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Biden | No | 36%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| America First | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Stock Market | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Tariff | No | 28%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 27%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | 26%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | No | 26%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXLEAVITTSMFMENTION-26APR22C · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP