Karoline Leavitt: Speech, Sep 10, 2026
Kalshi What will Karoline Leavitt say during RNC Midterm Convention?
Markets
17 words · 9 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | Yes | 51%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | Yes | 50%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Border | Yes | 44%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Biden | Yes | 43%n=5 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 38%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Republican | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Trump 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fake News | Yes | 33%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China / Chinese | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Election / Midterm | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Inflation | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran / Iranian | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| 2028 / Campaign | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Obama | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stock Market | No | 26%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 26%n=5 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXLEAVITTMENTION-26SEP10 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP