Will Karoline Leavitt say “Ceasefire”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Karoline Leavitt said “Ceasefire” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 15, 2025 (33%), most recently on Apr 22, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 38% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press briefings; Mar 10, 2026 – Jul 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 interviews have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3.
- Last 10
- 1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Karoline Leavitt
Ceasefire
- Probability
- 38% · n=3
- Settled
- 1/3 (33%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 3 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…reporting this morning that we had formally requested an extension of the ceasefire. That is not true. At this moment, we've remained very much engaged…
…Good to see all of you here today. Before I discuss the ceasefire with Iran, I have a quick update from the First Lady of…
…And in various examples, the 12-day war between Iran and Israel, the ceasefire between Israel and Gaza, the President has shown a very unique skill…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Karoline Leavitt say “Ceasefire”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Karoline Leavitt said “Ceasefire” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 15, 2025 (33%), most recently on Apr 22, 2026.
- What is the probability Karoline Leavitt says “Ceasefire” next time?
- 38%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Karoline Leavitt: ‘Ceasefire’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/karoline-leavitt/words/ceasefire (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=karoline-leavitt&word=ceasefire · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=karoline-leavitt&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP