Will Karoline Leavitt say “Democrat”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Karoline Leavitt said “Democrat” at 5 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 13, 2026 (83%), most recently on Sep 10, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 59% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press briefings; Mar 10, 2026 – Jul 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 speeches have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 7.
- Last 10
- 5/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes yes yes no yes yes
- Streak
- said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Karoline Leavitt
Democrat
- Probability
- 59% · n=6
- Settled
- 5/6 (83%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 7 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…exactly what he is delivering with the help of Republicans in Congress. Democrats throw around the word affordability a lot, but when they had the…
…on the integrity of our elections, tonight. I think all Republicans and Democrats should recognize this should be a nonpartisan issue. If we don't have…
…him and his supporters. By commentators, yes, by elected members of the Democrat Party and even some in the media. This hateful and constant and…
…But what the American people must not forget is that every single Democrat in Congress voted against these tax refunds. The media has largely omitted…
…hard every single day to protect the United States from foreign enemies, Democrats on Capitol Hill have failed to do the same here at home…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 6 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Karoline Leavitt say “Democrat”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Karoline Leavitt said “Democrat” at 5 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 13, 2026 (83%), most recently on Sep 10, 2026.
- What is the probability Karoline Leavitt says “Democrat” next time?
- 59%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Karoline Leavitt: ‘Democrat’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/karoline-leavitt/words/democrat (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=karoline-leavitt&word=democrat · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=karoline-leavitt&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP