Will Karoline Leavitt say “America First”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Karoline Leavitt did not say “America First” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 2, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 32% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press briefings; Mar 10, 2026 – Jul 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 interviews have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.
- Last 10
- 0/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Karoline Leavitt
America First
- Probability
- 32% · n=2
- Settled
- 0/2 (0%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 2 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…that has been discussed thus far and will continue to be discussed absolutely puts America first, and that's obviously very important to this President. Ed.
…they now talk about expansion, hiring plans, and generational opportunity. This is America first in action, lower taxes, rising wages, and a thriving Main Street.…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…and the American people, and he will only accept one that puts America first. With that, I will take your questions today. I'm sure you…
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 22, 2026 | America First |  Kalshi | No |
| Apr 2, 2026 | America First | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Karoline Leavitt say “America First”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Karoline Leavitt did not say “America First” at any of the 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 2, 2026.
- What is the probability Karoline Leavitt says “America First” next time?
- 32%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Karoline Leavitt: ‘America First’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/karoline-leavitt/words/america-first (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=karoline-leavitt&word=america%20first · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=karoline-leavitt&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP