Will Karoline Leavitt say “Iran / Iranian”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Karoline Leavitt said “Iran / Iranian” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Aug 27, 2026 (50%), most recently on Aug 27, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 40% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press briefings; Mar 10, 2026 – Jul 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 speeches have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 7.
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Karoline Leavitt
Iran / Iranian
- Probability
- 40% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 7 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…you one other question? Just playing devil's advocate, why does Saudi Arabia get a civilian nuclear deal but Iran doesn't get a civilian nuclear deal?
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…never targets civilians or children, unlike the other side of this conflict, Iran, who is well-known for killing women and children and innocent people in…
…I will reiterate is that the President's red lines with respect to Iran have been made very, very clear, not just to the American public,…
…in his interview yesterday, and it's obviously in the best interest of Iran to meet the president's demands. I think he's made his red lines…
…see all of you here today. Before I discuss the ceasefire with Iran, I have a quick update from the First Lady of the United…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | Iran / Iranian |  Kalshi | No |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Iran / Iranian | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Karoline Leavitt say “Iran / Iranian”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Karoline Leavitt said “Iran / Iranian” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Aug 27, 2026 (50%), most recently on Aug 27, 2026.
- What is the probability Karoline Leavitt says “Iran / Iranian” next time?
- 40%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Karoline Leavitt: ‘Iran / Iranian’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/karoline-leavitt/words/iran-or-iranian (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=karoline-leavitt&word=iran%20%2F%20iranian · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=karoline-leavitt&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP