Will Karoline Leavitt say “Stock Market”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, Karoline Leavitt did not say “Stock Market” at any of the 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 2, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 26% (n=4, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press briefings; Mar 10, 2026 – Jul 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 speeches have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 0.
- Last 10
- 0/4Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 4 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Karoline Leavitt
Stock Market
- Probability
- 26% · n=4
- Settled
- 0/4 (0%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 0 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Every settled listing
newest first · 4 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | Stock Market |  Kalshi | No |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Stock Market | Kalshi | No |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Stock Market | Kalshi | No |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Stock Market | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Karoline Leavitt say “Stock Market”?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, Karoline Leavitt did not say “Stock Market” at any of the 4 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Apr 2, 2026.
- What is the probability Karoline Leavitt says “Stock Market” next time?
- 26%, from settlement history (n=4). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Karoline Leavitt: ‘Stock Market’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/karoline-leavitt/words/stock-market (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=karoline-leavitt&word=stock%20market · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=karoline-leavitt&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP