What is the probability Karoline Leavitt says “Blockade” next time?

47%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.

Who has to say it for the market to count?

Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Will Karoline Leavitt say “Blockade”?

Name: Karoline Leavitt: “Blockade” mention history
Creator: parrot.markets
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

As of Oct 24, 2026, Karoline Leavitt said “Blockade” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Apr 22, 2026.

Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press briefings; Mar 10, 2026 – Jul 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 interviews have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 2.

–too little history for a probability (n=1)

Last 10: 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
Streak: said last time
Counts: named speaker only

BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy

Updated Oct 24, 2026, 05:02 UTC

Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Karoline Leavitt

Blockade

Probability: – · n=1 (too little history)
Settled: 1/1 (100%)
Last 8 transcripts: said in 2 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (8 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

Karoline LeavittspeakerPress Secretary Karoline Leavitt Briefs Members of the Media, Jul. 16, 2026 · Jul 16, 2026 · 29:48In transcript

…happening in the strait right now. We know that there is a blockade of ships directed by the President for ships entering and departing Iranian…

Karoline LeavittspeakerPress Secretary Karoline Leavitt, Scott Bessent, and Kelly Loeffler Brief Members of the Media · Apr 15, 2026 · 33:53In transcript

…of the President of the United States, but with respect to the blockade, as you know, it has been fully implemented and it's being enforced…

What will Karoline Leavitt say during RNC Midterm Convention? · not listed

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What will Karoline Leavitt say during Fox & Friends? · not listed

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What will Karoline Leavitt say during her Fox News interview? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

What will Karoline Leavitt say at the Turning Point Tour? · not listed

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What will Karoline Leavitt say during her Fox News interview? · not listed

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What will Karoline Leavitt say during her Fox Interview? · not listed

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What will Karoline Leavitt say on Sunday Morning Futures? · not listed

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Every settled listing

newest first · 1 shown

Every settled listing of this word, newest first
Date	Listed as	Venue	Result
Apr 22, 2026	Blockade	Kalshi	Yes

Questions

How often does Karoline Leavitt say “Blockade”?: As of Oct 24, 2026, Karoline Leavitt said “Blockade” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Apr 22, 2026.
What is the probability Karoline Leavitt says “Blockade” next time?: 47%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?: Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Karoline Leavitt: ‘Blockade’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/karoline-leavitt/words/blockade (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=karoline-leavitt&word=blockade · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=karoline-leavitt&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP