Will Karoline Leavitt say “Election / Midterm”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Karoline Leavitt said “Election / Midterm” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Aug 27, 2026 (50%), most recently on Aug 27, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 40% (n=2, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press briefings; Mar 10, 2026 – Jul 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 speeches have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 5.
- Last 10
- 1/2Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no
- Streak
- not said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Karoline Leavitt
Election / Midterm
- Probability
- 40% · n=2
- Settled
- 1/2 (50%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 5 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…in the Democrat Party. We have literal self-proclaimed communists who are winning elections and who are claiming to be the new leadership of the Democrat…
…a major address to the nation on protecting the integrity of our elections, and we encourage every American to tune in. On Friday, the President…
…With the World Cup, America 250, the 2028 Olympics, and a presidential election all ahead, the Democrat's obstruction is placing an enormous and totally pointless…
…Is that this administration's message to American voters with high gas prices, that ahead of the midterms this year that it's worth the economic pain?
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…message to American seniors who have a much higher voter participation rate and they're likely to be a key swing vote in the midterm elections?
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 2 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 10, 2026 | Election / Midterm |  Kalshi | No |
| Aug 27, 2026 | Election / Midterms | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Karoline Leavitt say “Election / Midterm”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Karoline Leavitt said “Election / Midterm” at 1 of 2 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Aug 27, 2026 (50%), most recently on Aug 27, 2026.
- What is the probability Karoline Leavitt says “Election / Midterm” next time?
- 40%, from settlement history (n=2). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Karoline Leavitt: ‘Election / Midterm’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/karoline-leavitt/words/election-or-midterm (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=karoline-leavitt&word=election%20%2F%20midterm · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=karoline-leavitt&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP