Karoline Leavitt: Remarks, Apr 2, 2026
Kalshi What will Karoline Leavitt say at the Turning Point Tour?
Markets
30 words · 11 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democrat | Yes | 51%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / TSA | Yes | 37%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Campaign / Campaigned | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Common Sense | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Fake News | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| God 3+ times | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| ID / Identification | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Pregnant / Baby | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Save Act / Save America Act | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Biden | Yes | 26%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Fraud | Yes | 26%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Epic Fury | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| China | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Agitator | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| AI / Artificial Intelligence | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| America First | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Butler | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Deport / Deportation | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Nuclear | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Stock Market | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Transgender | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Woke / DEI | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Tariff | No | 32%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Israel / Israeli | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Supreme Court | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Shutdown / Shut Down | No | 28%n=2 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXLEAVITTSMFMENTION-26APR02 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP