Will Karoline Leavitt say “Israel / Israeli”?
As of Oct 27, 2026, Karoline Leavitt said “Israel / Israeli” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 7, 2026 (33%), most recently on Apr 22, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 41% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press briefings; Mar 10, 2026 – Jul 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 interviews have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4.
- Last 10
- 1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Karoline Leavitt
Israel / Israeli
- Probability
- 41% · n=3
- Settled
- 1/3 (33%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 4 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…Abraham Accords with several countries in the region, between those countries and Israel. And the President obviously wants to expand on that historic accomplishment from…
…JD Vance, went on this podcast with Joe Rogan yesterday, talked about Israel, in which he said that there are some people within their system…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…sure, between the President and Prime Minister Netanyahu, the United States and Israel, and all of the parties involved, but at this point in time,…
…reducing their ability to pose future threats in the region. US and Israeli joint forces control the skies and have asserted air dominance over Iran,…
…the world. And in various examples, the 12-day war between Iran and Israel, the ceasefire between Israel and Gaza, the President has shown a very…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 22, 2026 | Israel / Israeli |  Kalshi | Yes |
| Apr 2, 2026 | Israel / Israeli | Kalshi | No |
| Mar 7, 2026 | Israel / Israeli | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Karoline Leavitt say “Israel / Israeli”?
- As of Oct 27, 2026, Karoline Leavitt said “Israel / Israeli” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 7, 2026 (33%), most recently on Apr 22, 2026.
- What is the probability Karoline Leavitt says “Israel / Israeli” next time?
- 41%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Karoline Leavitt: ‘Israel / Israeli’ mention history”, as of Oct 27, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/karoline-leavitt/words/israel-or-israeli (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=karoline-leavitt&word=israel%20%2F%20israeli · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=karoline-leavitt&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP