Will Karoline Leavitt say “ICE / National Guard”?
As of Oct 26, 2026, Karoline Leavitt said “ICE / National Guard” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 13, 2026 (33%), most recently on Jan 13, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 34% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press briefings; Mar 10, 2026 – Jul 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 interviews have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4.
- Last 10
- 1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no
- Streak
- not said the last 2 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Karoline Leavitt
ICE / National Guard
- Probability
- 34% · n=3
- Settled
- 1/3 (33%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 4 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…convicted of the most heinous and violent crimes. This past weekend alone, ICE arrested a Mexican national and gang member convicted of second degree murder…
…their visa was revoked by Secretary Rubio and they were deported by ICE, they had a fraudulent asylum claim. That's against the laws of the…
Democrats refuse to fund ICE because they want millions and millions of illegal aliens to pour into the country, just like they were under the…
…alleviate this pressure, made the decision to send some of our amazing ICE agents to help alleviate that stress and address the long wait times.…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 27, 2026 | ICE / National Guard |  Kalshi | No |
| Mar 7, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | No |
| Jan 13, 2026 | ICE / National Guard | Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Karoline Leavitt say “ICE / National Guard”?
- As of Oct 26, 2026, Karoline Leavitt said “ICE / National Guard” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 13, 2026 (33%), most recently on Jan 13, 2026.
- What is the probability Karoline Leavitt says “ICE / National Guard” next time?
- 34%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Karoline Leavitt: ‘ICE / National Guard’ mention history”, as of Oct 26, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/karoline-leavitt/words/ice-or-national-guard (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=karoline-leavitt&word=ice%20%2F%20national%20guard · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=karoline-leavitt&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP