Will Karoline Leavitt say “Shutdown / Shut Down”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Karoline Leavitt did not say “Shutdown / Shut Down” at any of the 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 15, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 30% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press briefings; Mar 10, 2026 – Jul 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 4.
- Last 10
- 0/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no no
- Streak
- not said the last 3 times
- Counts
- named speaker only
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Karoline Leavitt
Shutdown / Shut Down
- Probability
- 30% · n=3
- Settled
- 0/3 (0%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 4 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…we would have hoped, but that's because of the Democrats decision to shut down DHS for several weeks. So we expect to fully execute on…
…Congress has kept this vital agency defunded for 73 days, the longest shutdown of a federal agency in US history. The Secret Service is a…
…nexus to TSA operations to provide TSA employees with the compensation and benefits that would have accrued to them but for the Democrat-led DHS shutdown.
Here at home, we are now on day 40 of the Democrats shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security. Democrats in Congress are forcing American…
…you so much. Karoline, with the DHS currently under a partial Democrat shutdown, does the administration have any specific concerns about potential impact on homeland…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down |  Kalshi | No |
| Mar 7, 2026 | Shutdown / Shut Down | Kalshi | No |
| Mar 15, 2025 | Shutdown / Shut down | Kalshi | No |
Questions
- How often does Karoline Leavitt say “Shutdown / Shut Down”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Karoline Leavitt did not say “Shutdown / Shut Down” at any of the 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 15, 2025.
- What is the probability Karoline Leavitt says “Shutdown / Shut Down” next time?
- 30%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Karoline Leavitt: ‘Shutdown / Shut Down’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/karoline-leavitt/words/shut-down-or-shutdown (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=karoline-leavitt&word=shut%20down%20%2F%20shutdown · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=karoline-leavitt&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP