Will Karoline Leavitt say “Fraud”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Karoline Leavitt said “Fraud” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 13, 2026 (33%), most recently on Apr 2, 2026. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 40% (n=3, from settlement history), not a forecast.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press briefings; Mar 10, 2026 – Jul 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3.
- Last 10
- 1/3Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: no no yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Karoline Leavitt
Fraud
- Probability
- 40% · n=3
- Settled
- 1/3 (33%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 3 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…Congress have proven over and over again that they are the affordability frauds who believe the government should keep more of the American people's hard-earned…
…think Jack Smith has been proven to be a liar and a fraud. And this is, again, a cheap political stunt from a Democrat on…
…practice of universal mail-in ballots, which throws the door wide open for fraud. Importantly, the SAVE America Act maintains exceptions for Americans to use mail-in…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 3 shown
KalshiQuestions
- How often does Karoline Leavitt say “Fraud”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Karoline Leavitt said “Fraud” at 1 of 3 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Jan 13, 2026 (33%), most recently on Apr 2, 2026.
- What is the probability Karoline Leavitt says “Fraud” next time?
- 40%, from settlement history (n=3). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Karoline Leavitt: ‘Fraud’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/karoline-leavitt/words/fraud (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=karoline-leavitt&word=fraud · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=karoline-leavitt&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP