Will Karoline Leavitt say “Tariff”?

As of Oct 23, 2026, Karoline Leavitt said “Tariff” at 1 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 15, 2025 (17%), most recently on Mar 15, 2025. Parrot’s p for the next listing is 26% (n=6, from settlement history), not a forecast.

Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press briefings; Mar 10, 2026 – Jul 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 speeches have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 1.

26%from settlement history only · n=6counts: named speaker only
Last 10
1/6Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes no no no no no
Streak
not said the last 5 times
Counts
named speaker only

BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy

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Where it was said

quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance

Karoline Leavitt

Tariff

Probability
26% · n=6
Settled
1/6 (17%)
Last 8 transcripts
said in 1 of 8

Next listing counts: named speaker only

Latest quotes

from the latest transcripts we have (8 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.

The PressreporterPress Secretary Karoline Leavitt Briefs Members of the Media, Jul. 23, 2026 · Jul 23, 2026 · 12:46In transcript

Thanks, Karoline. So Friday, the Section 122, the 10 percent global tariff, goes away. Is the President going to ask Congress for an extension or…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

Karoline LeavittspeakerPress Secretary Karoline Leavitt, Scott Bessent, and Kelly Loeffler Brief Members of the Media · Apr 15, 2026 · 28:22In transcript

…made to the president. It's obviously something the administration keeps close tabs on with respect to tariff. You have any update on that, Mr. Secretary?

The PressreporterPress Secretary Karoline Leavitt Briefs Members of the Media, Mar. 30, 2026 · Mar 30, 2026 · 22:03In transcript

Karoline, on Cuba, the President threatened to tariff any country that would send oil to Cuba, but now the US is letting this Russian tanker…

Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.

What will Karoline Leavitt say during RNC Midterm Convention? · settled no

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What will Karoline Leavitt say during Fox & Friends? · settled no

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What will Karoline Leavitt say during her Fox News interview? · settled no

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What will Karoline Leavitt say at the Turning Point Tour? · settled no

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What will Karoline Leavitt say during her Fox News interview? · settled no

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What will Karoline Leavitt say during her Fox Interview? · not listed

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What will Karoline Leavitt say on Sunday Morning Futures? · settled yes

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We don’t have this transcript yet.

Every settled listing

newest first · 6 shown
Every settled listing of this word, newest first
DateListed asVenueResult
Sep 10, 2026TariffKalshiNo
Aug 27, 2026TariffKalshiNo
Apr 22, 2026TariffKalshiNo
Apr 2, 2026TariffKalshiNo
Mar 7, 2026TariffKalshiNo
Mar 15, 2025TariffKalshiYes

Questions

How often does Karoline Leavitt say “Tariff”?
As of Oct 23, 2026, Karoline Leavitt said “Tariff” at 1 of 6 occasions with a settled Kalshi mention market since Mar 15, 2025 (17%), most recently on Mar 15, 2025.
What is the probability Karoline Leavitt says “Tariff” next time?
26%, from settlement history (n=6). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
Who has to say it for the market to count?
Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.

Cite parrot.markets, “Karoline Leavitt: ‘Tariff’ mention history”, as of Oct 23, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/karoline-leavitt/words/tariff (CC BY 4.0)

Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=karoline-leavitt&word=tariff · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=karoline-leavitt&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP