Karoline Leavitt: Interview, Aug 27, 2026
Kalshi What will Karoline Leavitt say during Fox & Friends?
Markets
22 words · 10 settled yes- Kalshi: named speaker only Kalshi
backtest The probabilities on settled rows are a walk-forward backtest: the model as of before each event, computed after Parrot went live; they were not published at the time.
| Word | Result | Probability | Market |
|---|---|---|---|
| Negotiate / Negotiated / Negotiation | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Democrat | Yes | 46%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Illegal Alien | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Iran / Iranian | Yes | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| China / Chinese | Yes | 38%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Inflation | Yes | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Election / Midterms | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Border | Yes | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Biden | Yes | 32%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Afford / Affordable / Affordability | Yes | 27%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Oil / Gas / Gasoline | No | 48%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Ceasefire | No | 46%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| ICE / National Guard | No | 39%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Fake News | No | 38%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Jennings | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| MAGA / Make America Great Again | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Mail-in Voting | No | –new new word, no probability yet | – |
| Socialist / Socialism | No | –n=1 too little history for a probability | – |
| Stock Market | No | 29%n=2 from settlement history | – |
| Tariff | No | 28%n=4 from settlement history | – |
| Radical Left | No | 27%n=3 from settlement history | – |
| Supreme Court | No | 27%n=3 from settlement history | – |
Market prices are mid quotes from Kalshi and Polymarket, shown for context, may be delayed by several minutes and are not a signal. Quotes as of Oct 20, 2026 15:46 UTC.
Transcript
No transcript source yet. The results above are how the venues settled the markets.
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/brief?event=k%3AKXLEAVITTMENTION-26AUG27 · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP