Will Karoline Leavitt say “Common Sense”?
As of Oct 24, 2026, Karoline Leavitt said “Common Sense” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Apr 2, 2026.
Of the last 8 transcripts we have, of any kind (8 press briefings; Mar 10, 2026 – Jul 23, 2026), since fewer than 2 remarks have transcripts, it reached the market's count (1+, named speaker only) in 3.
- Last 10
- 1/1Last 10 settled, oldest to newest: yes
- Streak
- said last time
- Counts
- named speaker only
BetaOur transcript counts in White House agree with 97.5% of settled markets (1,870 of 1,917), below our 98% bar: treat them as provisional. Accuracy
Where it was said
quotes of at most 25 words; select an appearance
Karoline Leavitt
Common Sense
- Probability
- – · n=1 (too little history)
- Settled
- 1/1 (100%)
- Last 8 transcripts
- said in 3 of 8
Next listing counts: named speaker only
Latest quotes
from the latest transcripts we have (8 press briefings); the strip shows how each listed occasion settled.
…out that every single Democrat on Capitol Hill voted against every single common-sense provision that put more money back into the pockets of the American…
…our workers, on our seniors, on hardworking families. Thankfully, Republicans united behind common sense policy of letting Americans, not Washington bureaucrats or fraudsters keep more…
Not counted under the market’s speaker rule.
…make it work through reconciliation, let's absolutely do that. These, again, are common sense policies that are backed by the vast majority of voters across…
…is overwhelmingly popular with all Americans because each provision is rooted in common sense. The SAVE America Act has five simple requirements as requested by…
We don’t have this transcript yet.
Every settled listing
newest first · 1 shown| Date | Listed as | Venue | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 2, 2026 | Common Sense |  Kalshi | Yes |
Questions
- How often does Karoline Leavitt say “Common Sense”?
- As of Oct 24, 2026, Karoline Leavitt said “Common Sense” at the only occasion with a settled Kalshi mention market so far, on Apr 2, 2026.
- What is the probability Karoline Leavitt says “Common Sense” next time?
- 45%, from settlement history (n=1). It is a base rate from history, not a forecast and not advice.
- Who has to say it for the market to count?
- Under the next market's rule: named speaker only.
Cite parrot.markets, “Karoline Leavitt: ‘Common Sense’ mention history”, as of Oct 24, 2026, https://parrot.markets/white-house/karoline-leavitt/words/common-sense (CC BY 4.0)
Agents: this page as TSV at /api/v1/word?entity=karoline-leavitt&word=common%20sense · quotes: /api/v1/quotes?entity=karoline-leavitt&word=… · columnar JSON in #parrot-data · llms.txt · MCP